Probability of US Fed Interest Rate Cut Increases, Iron Ore Prices Slightly Rise [SMM Brief Comment]

Published: Oct 22, 2025 17:40

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Today, iron ore futures continued to hold up well, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 774, up 0.65% from yesterday. Main port spot cargoes rose by 2-3 yuan compared to the previous working day. In Shandong, transaction prices for PB fines were at 777-783 yuan, up 2-3 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Hebei, transaction prices for PB fines were at 790-793 yuan/mt, up 2-3 yuan from yesterday. Inquiries were average today, spot transactions were relatively small, traders' quoting enthusiasm was moderate, with a focus on selling at suitable prices. Steel mills mainly procured based on demand. On October 22, the blast furnace operating rate at the 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM 87.12%, down 0.02 percentage points MoM. The daily average hot metal production at the larger sample of steel mills was 2.416 million mt, down 1,200 mt MoM. Recently, the number of blast furnace maintenance and production resumptions has been relatively small, having a limited impact on hot metal output. Short-term hot metal production is unlikely to see significant fluctuations, and overall iron ore demand provides support for ore prices. Additionally, the probability of a US Fed interest rate cut increased to 98.9%, boosting market sentiment. Coupled with the ongoing domestic meetings, short-term ore prices may fluctuate rangebound.

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